Part 2 | Predicting Renal Recovery After Dialysis-Requiring Acute Kidney Injury Predicting Renal Recovery After Dialysis-Requiring Acute Kidney Injury

Mar 03, 2022

Predicting Renal Recovery After Dialysis-Requiring Acute Kidney Injury Predicting Renal Recovery After Dialysis-Requiring Acute Kidney Injury

Contact: emily.li@wecistanche.com

Benjamin J. Lee1,2,3, Chi-yuan Hsu1,4, Rishi Parikh4, Charles E. McCulloch5, Thida C. Tan4, Kathleen D. Liu1,6, Raymond K. Hsu1, Leonid Pravoverov7, Sijie Zheng4,7, and Alan S. Go1,4,5

1Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA; 2Houston Kidney Consultants, Houston, Texas, USA; 3Houston Methodist Institute for Academic Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA; 4Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California, USA; 5Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA; 6Division of Critical Care, Department of Anesthesia, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA; and 7Department of Nephrology, Kaiser Permanente Oakland Medical Center, Oakland, California, USA


Keywords: dialysis, dialysis-requiring, kidney function, acute kidney injury, prediction model, renal recovery

For Part 1, please click here.

RESULTS

Cohort Assembly and Baseline Characteristics

We initially identified 13,213 adult patients who received inpatient RRT. After excluding patients who received chronic dialysis before hospitalization, were of age <18 years, had unknown gender, had <12 consecutive months of membership or drug coverage before the index hospitalization had no baseline serum creatinine concentration, had baseline eGFR >150 or <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2, had a predicted probability of inpatient mortality ≥20%, or had <50% increase in peak inpatient serum creatinine concentration compared with preadmission baseline, we had a final analytic cohort of 2214 patients with AKI-D (Figure 1).

The mean age was 67.1 years, 40.8% were women, and 54.0% were white. Overall, 905 (40.9%) patients recovered within 90 days of RRT initiation. Of the patients who did not recover, 731 (55.8%) died while still dialysis-dependent. Selected candidate predictors are presented in Table 1; the remaining additional candidate predictors are reported in Supplementary Table S1. Compared with patients who did not recover, patients who recovered were younger and less likely to have a history of heart failure or chronic liver disease. Those who recovered had a higher body mass index, higher baseline eGFR, less proteinuria, and higher preadmission hemoglobin level (Table 1).

Figure 1


Logistic Regression

In 1000 bootstrap samples of the analytic cohort, 4 predictors were chosen by stepwise regression in >75% of samples: baseline (preadmission) eGFR (all 1000 samples), preadmission hemoglobin level (954 samples), history of chronic liver disease (863 samples), and age (802 samples). The c-index of a model with these predictors, obtained using observed and predicted values from 10-fold cross-validation, was 0.64. The correlation coefficient (R) between observed and predicted probabilities of recovery, plotted by decile of predicted probability of recovery, was high at 0.97 (Figure 2). Predicted recovery probabilities ranged from 9% to 22% in the lowest decile to 58% to 66% in the highest decile. Using the full analytic cohort, we obtained odds ratios for recovery for the 4 chosen predictors using logistic regression (Table 2).

In our sensitivity analysis that did not exclude patients with a predicted probability of inpatient mortality ≥ 20%, the same predictors were chosen using our bootstrapping and cross-validation approach, with no significant change in the c-index (0.645).

In an additional sensitivity analysis, results did not materially differ if serum creatinine concentration was used instead of eGFR (c-index 0.646), and the same predictors were selected.


Figure 2

CART Analysis

The final decision tree included 4 nodes: eGFR 30 ml/ min per 1.73 m2, preadmission hemoglobin <12.0 g/l, preadmission platelet count ≥150,000/ml, and history of diabetes mellitus (Figure 3). CART subdivided the cohort into 5 risk groups with recovery probabilities ranging from 25.6% to 52.7%. The c-index obtained from 10-fold cross-validation was 0.61.

Figure 3

CONCLUSION

We developed and cross-validated a parsimonious logistic regression model for recovery after AKI-D using variables that are routinely available in clinical practice. To our knowledge, our study is the first to develop a recovery prediction model that uses clinical data from a diverse, community-based cohort. Although novel, simple to use, and has excellent calibration (i.e., ability to predict absolute risk accurately), our model demonstrated only modest discrimination, which limits its clinical utility.

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We believe that our model's disappointing discrimination highlights how very challenging it is to distinguish relatively between patients with higher versus lower chances of recovery in a real-world clinical setting using information currently available to physicians. This finding is entirely concordant with our recent report that approximately 1 in every 24 patients registered as having ESRD in the U.S. Renal Data System recovered to discontinue dialysis and likely had AKI-D misclassified as permanent kidney failure instead.43 This dilemma has population-level implications, particularly in the United States where reimbursement policies for dialysis services have historically differed depending on whether a patient is designated as having AKI-D or ESRD. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services only reinstated reimbursement for dialysis provided to AKI-D outpatients in 2017, and payments for skilled nursing facility residents with AKI-D only started in 2018.44 Furthermore, there has been considerable debate regarding whether patients with AKI-D should be included in the ESRD Quality Incentive Program, which affects payments to ESRD facilities.45 Because optimal clinical management of patients with AKI-D and of patients with ESRD differ, the American Society of Nephrology46 and Renal Physicians Association47 have strongly advocated against including patients with AKI-D in the ESRD Quality Incentive Program. Our results argue that policies based on assuming that physicians are able to predict accurately whether a patient truly has ESRD or not at the time of RRT initiation may be unwise and unrealistic. A better approach may be to recognize this diagnostic uncertainty and modify policy accordingly, such as by asking physicians to certify patients as having ESRD or not only after a certain period has elapsed.

Our findings that younger age and higher baseline eGFR are strong predictors for recovery are consistent with prior studies.12–15 The fact that chronic liver disease is associated with reduced chances for recovery may be due to compromised renal perfusion in the setting of hepatorenal physiology.48 We speculate that our finding that higher preadmission hemoglobin level predicts recovery may reflect higher preadmission eGFR (because hemoglobin level and eGFR may be correlated, and our hemoglobin categories were narrower than our eGFR categories) or generally better health status overall.


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Strengths of our study include the large, contemporary cohort of patients with AKI-D with broad demographic diversity. Although most other studies have included only patients in intensive care units,5,12,16,49,50 our cohort included both intensive care unit and medical ward patients in 21 medical centers across Northern California.23 KPNC’s integrated health care delivery system offers the advantage of being able to track recovery longitudinally both during the AKI-D hospitalization and in the outpatient setting after hospital discharge. In addition, it provides the unique opportunity to ascertain preadmission comorbidities, medication use, and laboratory values. In contrast, many AKI epidemiology studies2,51,52 have had limited ascertainment of key clinical covariates before hospitalization. We used rigorous criteria to identify AKI-D cases and were careful about requiring patient survival for≥4 weeks after dialysis discontinuation to avoid misclassification of withdrawal of care as recovery. Our approach of anchoring recovery from the time of dialysis initiation rather than the time of hospital discharge also enhances our results' generalizability compared with prior studies because the timing of hospital discharge may be affected by social and systems-based factors unrelated to the natural history of AKI-D. Finally, we used 2 modeling techniques to try to enhance our ability to predict renal recovery.


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Several limitations should be noted. Because predicting recovery is clinically relevant only once patients are improving, typically in the denouement phase of acute illness, the ideal study population in which to derive a prediction rule should include only patients with AKI-D who reach this juncture in their hospitalizations. However, it is not possible to identify this stage of disease trajectory in large database studies such as ours. We, therefore, limited our study population to the subset of patients with AKI-D who could be readily identified clinically as not having excessively high predicted inpatient mortality risk. We did not want to limit our study population only to AKI-D survivors because such an approach would use retrospective conditioning. We required that all cases of AKI-D have a ≥50% increase in serum creatinine over the preadmission baseline value to reduce misclassifi- cation of progressive CKD as AKI. However, as a result, we may have excluded some cases of true AKI-D (e.g., a cardiac surgery patient who is anuric and volume- overloaded postoperatively may initiate RRT in the setting of true AKI but may not meet this threshold to be included in our analysis). We defined recovery as a dichotomous outcome based on RRT dependence and did not estimate the magnitude of recovery (e.g., full vs. partial recovery). Although functional recovery beyond RRT dependence is certainly important, definitions for recovery are variable,22 and serum creatinine levels may be affected by dilution from fluid accumulation53 and fluctuating creatinine production,54,55 which makes evaluating recovery as a change in serum creatinine concentration from before to after the acute illness less straightforward. Furthermore, in current practice, most physicians do not systematically ascertain recovery. Another limitation of our study was that not all clinical details related to the AKI-D hospitalizations were available. We were missing information regarding the etiology of preexisting CKD, indication for RRT initiation, initial RRT modality (e.g., intermittent vs. continuous therapy), physiologic variables at the time of RRT initiation including APACHE score and urine output, inpatient medication use, and setting of AKI (e.g., sepsis or postsurgery); however, there is no definitive evidence that dialysis duration,12,56 dialysis dose,57,58 choice of dialysis membrane,59 RRT modality,9,12,56,59–64 timing of dialysis initiation,65–68 or medications such as diuretics69–71 are associated with chances of recovery. Although the specific etiology of AKI-D was also unavailable in our dataset, prior chart review of KPNC medical records by a board-certified nephrologist of similar cases showed that almost all were due to acute tubular necrosis.13,15 We were not able to examine whether the Charlson comorbidity index and APACHE II score were predictive for recovery, as previously reported,18 because not all of the components were available. However, the vast majority of these scores' parameters are accounted for in the validated KPNC inpatient mortality score that was used instead.26 Finally, while we used a 10-fold cross-validation approach, our results should be further validated in other external patient populations that have similarly broad diversity in sociodemographic features and comorbidity burden.


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In conclusion, we have developed and cross-validated a prediction model for recovery after AKI-D, but our find- ings reiterate the need for better clinical prediction tools. Although our model demonstrates excellent calibration, its modest discrimination may reflect the complexity of factors affecting recovery. The addition of selected biomarkers to clinical parameters may prove useful in enhancing predictive models in the future.18,72,73 Future research is needed to enhance our predictive abilities as well as to examine potential treatments that may enhance or expedite recovery after AKI-D.

DISCLOSURE

All the authors declared no competing interests.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This study was supported by the University of California, San Francisco–Kaiser Permanente Northern California Grants Program for Fellows (BJL, ASG, and CYH) and NIH- NIDDK Grants T32DK007219 (BJL), F32DK115030 (BJL), K24DK92291 (CYH), K24DK113381 (KDL), K23DK100468 (RKH), R03DK111881 (RKH), and R01DK101507 (ASG, CYH,

and KDL).

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

BJL, CYH, CEM, and ASG designed the study; RP, TCT, LP, SZ, and ASG acquired the data; BJL, CYH, RP, CEM, TCT, KDL, RKH, LP, SZ, and ASG analyzed and interpreted the data; BJL, CYH, and ASG drafted the paper; BJL, CYH, RP, CEM, TCT, KDL, RKH, LP, SZ, and ASG revised the paper; all authors approved the final version of the manuscript.

SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

Table S1. Additional baseline characteristics of the study cohort, stratified by renal recovery status.

Appendix S1. List of hospitals in which the study population was treated.

Supplementary material is linked to the online version of the paper at www.kireports.org.

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