The Impact Of Changes in China's Marriage Patterns On Fertility: A Comparative Study With Japan And South Korea

【Abstract】Many countries around the world are facing the dilemma of long-term low fertility levels. The countries in the Confucian cultural circle in East Asia have collectively fallen into extremely low fertility levels and show similar marriage and childbearing characteristics. Based on the historical changes in the marriage and childbearing patterns of China, Japan and South Korea, this paper explores the impact of changes in China's marriage pattern on fertility.
The results show that: (1) The three countries have experienced similar changes in marriage and childbearing levels and patterns; (2) Changes in marriage patterns have always played a role in lowering fertility levels, and the impact of married fertility rates on fertility levels has a "negative-positive-negative" change over time; (3) If 2020 is taken as the starting point, and the tendency of Chinese women to have children within marriage remains unchanged, the postponement of marriage and the increase in the level of non-marriage will further lower China's total fertility rate. At present, the average age of first marriage for Chinese women is relatively low, which means that there is more room for delaying marriage in the future, and we need to be vigilant about the negative pressure of marriage on fertility.
【Keywords】Marriage pattern Fertility pattern Fertility level International comparison
【Author】Li Ting, Professor, Population and Development Research Center, Family and Gender Research Center, Renmin University of China; Wang Qiang, PhD student, School of Population and Health, Renmin University of China.

1. Research background

The 2020 national census data showed that China's total fertility rate was only 1.3, falling into an extremely low fertility level.
This phenomenon is not unique to China. Many countries and regions around the world are also facing the dilemma of long-term low fertility (Bhattacharjee et al., 2024). In this context, explaining the mechanism of fertility decline and predicting the future trend of fertility levels are of great practical significance. Existing studies have explored two main mechanisms for the decline in fertility. The first mechanism involves the progress effect of fertility, that is, considering the impact of delayed fertility on the decline in total fertility (Bongaarts et al., 1998). Under the condition that the fertility level of the cohort remains unchanged, the universal postponement of childbearing by women of childbearing age will lead to a decline in the observed total fertility rate. Only when the delay in fertility slows down will the total fertility rate rebound (Sobotka et al., 2011).
The second mechanism focuses on the downturn in fertility intentions and actual fertility behavior. Existing studies have proposed a variety of theories to explain the current low fertility level, including the suppression of women's fertility intention by the separation of public and private in the gender field, and the impact of institutional changes on individual life courses under the situation of globalization (McDonald, 2000; Hellstrand et al., 2021). Among them, the second demographic transition theory has the most extensive influence. The second demographic transition theory attempts to explain the low fertility level from the perspective of concept change. The theory believes that with the rise of individualism, the attractiveness of fertility to individuals has declined. In the context of self-realization and self-identity becoming core needs, fertility has become only one of many lifestyle options, and the institutional foundation of fertility has been shaken. In addition to emphasizing the change of concepts, the most important contribution of the second demographic transition theory is to incorporate changes in marriage and family into the framework of fertility transformation and consider the impact of changes in marriage patterns on fertility. On the one hand, with the improvement of women's education and economic ability, women's marriage benefits have decreased, their willingness to enter marriage has weakened, and divorce has become more and more common. On the other hand, premarital cohabitation and non-marital childbearing have become common, further decoupling marriage and childbearing, leading to the breakdown of the traditional marriage and family system (Lesthaeghe, 2014). The second demographic transition theory can better explain the changes in family and childbearing in Western countries. However, in East Asian societies represented by China, Japan and South Korea, the uniqueness of marriage and family has challenged this theory. Although the age of first marriage and first childbearing and the divorce rate in these countries and regions have continued to rise, which is consistent with the trend predicted by the second demographic transition theory, compared with the West, cohabitation is still at a relatively low level, and cohabitation is more of a prelude to marriage than a substitute (Raymo, 2022). More importantly, East Asian society still has a low level of acceptance of extramarital childbearing, and the proportion of extramarital childbearing has remained at an ultra-low level in recent decades (Bumpass et al., 2009; Lee, 2009).

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The cultural traditions of East Asia help explain the particularity of marriage and childbearing patterns in East Asia under the background of low fertility. The patriarchy of traditional Confucian culture has evolved into a male-oriented feature, and deep-rooted gender role concepts are shown in all areas of society. In these societies, mainstream culture places more emphasis on fathers in a social sense to ensure the continuation of the family, and the acceptance of non-marital births is very low, and even shows a certain degree of "stigmatization". At the same time, the intergenerational ethics of downward responsibility in traditional culture has also strengthened the public's awareness of the need to raise children within the framework of marriage (Choi, 2023). These factors work together to build a strong connection between marriage and fertility in East Asian society. Women generally regard marriage as a necessary condition for fertility, forming a unique East Asian fertility model (Choe et al., 2014; Fukuda, 2020), and also amplifying the impact of changes in marriage patterns on fertility levels. On the one hand, the postponement of marriage will further promote the suppression of fertility by the progress effect. On the other hand, the increase in the rate of non-marriage will directly reduce the number of births and lower the fertility level.

Since the 1990s, China has experienced rapid changes in marriage patterns, and has continued to accelerate since entering the 21st century. From the perspective of the time of entering marriage, the age of first marriage for Chinese men and women was delayed at an average rate of 0.06 and 0.07 years per year from 2000 to 2010, and the corresponding rate increased to 0.36 and 0.40 years per year from 2010 to 2020, respectively, showing an accelerating trend (Zhang Xianling and Sheng Yinan, 2023). From the perspective of marriage distribution, as more and more individuals enter marriage later and less frequently, the peak of the age-specific first marriage rate continues to decline, and the age corresponding to the peak continues to rise. In addition, marriage also shows the characteristics of increasing expected years of unmarried life, decreasing expected lifetime marriage rate, and rapidly rising lifetime unmarried level of young cohorts (Shi Renbing and Ke Shuqi, 2023; Feng Ting, 2023). Changes in the field of marriage since the 21st century have changed China's marriage model from "early marriage and universal marriage" to "late marriage and universal marriage" (Chen Wei and Zhang Fengfei, 2022), and there is a trend towards a "late marriage and less marriage" model. Changes in marriage patterns will lead to lower fertility levels, which is an inevitable result under the influence of traditional marriage and childbearing order patterns and cultural systems (Song Jian and Zheng Hang, 2023).

China and other countries in East Asia have similar cultural and marriage and childbearing evolution patterns, which means that without external intervention, China's future marriage and childbearing patterns are likely to follow the path of other East Asian countries and lead to lower fertility levels. Analyzing the empirical data of changes in marriage and childbearing patterns in Japan and South Korea and summarizing the impact of marriage on fertility changes and its changes will help to better understand the historical changes, current stage and future development trends of China's fertility level and fertility pattern, and provide reference for improving the fertility support policy system. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the characteristics of changes in fertility levels in China and other major countries in East Asia from the perspective of the relationship between marriage and fertility, and answer the following three questions:
(1) How have the marriage and childbearing patterns of China, Japan and South Korea changed?
(2) How have changes in marriage patterns over the past few decades affected fertility levels?
(3) With Japan and South Korea as a reference, what impact may the changing trends in China's future marriage postponement and non-marriage levels have on the fertility level of the period?

II. Literature Review

(I) Indicators for measuring married fertility levels

To understand the impact of marriage on fertility, we need to first construct indicators to measure married fertility levels. The total fertility rate is the most commonly used indicator to reflect fertility levels, but this indicator has no direct correlation with marriage. Based on this indicator, women of childbearing age are divided into married and unmarried according to their marital status. The married fertility rate and the out-of-marriage fertility rate can be calculated by combining the fertility behaviors of women in different statuses (Takahashi, 2004). There are differences in the possibility of married women of different ages to give birth, so some studies have obtained the total married fertility rate (TMFR) by summing up the married fertility rates of different ages (groups) to reflect the married fertility level (Eun, 2003). Similar to the total fertility rate, the total marital fertility rate measures the average number of children born by married women if they spend their childbearing period at the current age-specific married fertility rate. It is a hypothetical cohort indicator.
According to the marital status and attributes of women in the denominator, the total married fertility rate can be further divided into the married fertility rate and the married fertility rate. If the denominator does not include divorced and widowed women, it is the married fertility rate (Yip et al., 2015), otherwise it is the married fertility rate (Guo Zhigang, Tian Siyu, 2017). If the proportion of women in the divorced or widowed state is relatively small, then the two married fertility rates will not show obvious differences. In addition, there are also studies that use the average number of children born to married women to reflect the married fertility level (Mosk, 1979), or use the average number of children born after 15 to 19 years of marriage to approximately reflect the married fertility level (Fukuda, 2020).
In general, there are different ways to measure the married fertility level, and different indicators have different focuses. The average number of children born after 15 to 19 years of marriage focuses more on the concept of cohort and emphasizes the lifelong married fertility level. The married fertility rate and the average number of children born to married women reflect the married fertility level of the period. The difference between the two is that the married fertility rate uses a standardized age structure, while the average number of children born to married women will be affected by the age structure of married women of childbearing age. Therefore, when analyzing changes in married fertility levels during the period, married fertility rates should be used as much as possible if data permit.

(II) The impact of marriage on fertility levels

The numerical value of the married fertility rate reflects the number of births at a given age structure, and cannot explain the relationship between marriage and fertility. In this regard, the academic community has accumulated some important research results.
The mediating variable model theoretically analyzes how changes in marriage levels affect actual fertility levels, and is an important analytical framework for discussing the relationship between marriage and fertility. The core of the model is to establish a relationship between women's fertility intentions, fertility possibilities, and actual fertility levels by abstracting various factors that affect women's fertility into a series of mediating variables (Bongaarts, 1978). The lower the overall marriage level, the smaller the value of the married ratio index, and the greater the inhibitory effect of marriage on fertility levels (Li Jianxin, Sheng He, 2024).
The marriage index in the mediating variable model actually emphasizes the impact of delayed marriage and the resulting delayed fertility on fertility levels. Delayed marriage will shorten women's childbearing period, not only increase women's first childbearing age, but also reduce the possibility of having a higher number of children (Atoh et al., 2004). In East Asia, the impact of women's delayed marriage on the fertility level of the period is more obvious. This is because, under the cultural tradition of low recognition of non-marital childbearing, the possibility of unmarried groups giving birth is very small, but in the calculation of traditional fertility levels, it will be included as a denominator in the calculation of age-specific fertility rates, which will lower the fertility rates of all age groups (Guo Zhigang, 2017). Yang Chenggang and Zhang Xiaoqiu (2011) discussed the influencing factors of changes in China's fertility level based on this model, and believed that the marriage level plays a major role in it.

There are also studies based on new mediating variable models or direct decomposition of the total fertility rate to discuss the relationship between marriage and fertility levels. These studies also emphasize that changes in marriage patterns are continuously lowering China's fertility level (Chen Wei et al., 2021; Li Yue and Zhang Xuying, 2021).
The Cole Fertility Index is a model that discusses the relationship between marriage and fertility based on indirect analysis ideas. The core of this index is that by introducing the third-party married fertility model, it can separate the influence of the married ratio and the fertility level in marriage in the differences in fertility levels in different regions or in different periods in the same region by using only the total number of married children, the number of married women of childbearing age and the age-specific married ratio when data is limited (Coale, 1971; Zeng Yi et al., 2011).

The Coale Fertility Index is essentially an indirect standardization, and its results will be affected by the choice of the marriage structure of women of childbearing age and the standard of fertility level in marriage (Kitagawa, 1955). Some studies have proposed an improved Coale Fertility Index based on the age-specific married fertility rate (Zhang Xiaoqiu, 2009), but the introduction of a third-party married fertility model in the case of complete age-specific married fertility rates deviates from the original intention of the Coale Fertility Index, that is, to decompose the contribution rate of the married ratio and the married fertility level to the change in fertility level in the case of incomplete data (Song Jian, 2019). Therefore, when the data meets the analysis requirements, the direct standardization method can be used to analyze the changes in the marriage ratio and its impact on fertility.
In summary, different marriage and fertility analysis models have their own scope of application. The mediating variable model establishes a connection between fertility, ideal number of children and actual fertility level by using a series of mediating variables that affect fertility. The Cole Fertility Index solves the difficulty of analyzing the factors affecting fertility levels in different periods or regions when the data is incomplete. It has certain application value in the analysis of marriage and fertility in small areas, but its application does not have a comparative advantage in the scenario of complete data. This paper focuses on the impact of marriage on fertility in different countries and its diachronic evolution. Therefore, it mainly uses a simplified mediating variable model and direct decomposition method to discuss the impact of marriage changes on fertility in different regions and its changes. Considering that women are the main carriers of fertility behavior, this paper limits the research objects to the female population.